Deep Springs, California 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

233
FXUS65 KVEF 090221 AAA
AFDVEF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
721 PM PDT Tue Oct 8 2024

.SYNOPSIS...A weak upper wave continues to drift eastward across
central California, generating spotty high based showers. Most of
this activity has been confined to Nye, Lincoln, and northern Mohave
counties. Very little, if any of this is reaching the ground outside
of the higher elevations. At times, brief gusty winds may occur with
evaporative processes due to the high based nature of this activity,
and a deeply mixed environment. Otherwise, unseasonably warm
conditions persist.

&&

.UPDATE...The remaining light showers over Lincoln County should
come to an end by 11 pm this evening. Elsewhere, skies will be
mostly clear tonight as a weak shortwave slowly slides southeast
through southern California.

Needles California broke their record high today at 107 degrees.
That ties the latest date that Needles has observed a temperature of
105 degrees or higher. The previous latest date was 105 degrees on
October, 8 1964. Las Vegas tied the record of 98 degrees. For the
first 7 days of October, the average temperature for Las Vegas is
88.4 degrees. That is 6 degrees warmer than any other start to an
October dating back to 1937. Let`s not forget, there were several
record warm lows set as well.

No update necessary this evening.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...1241 PM PDT Tue Oct 8 2024
.SHORT TERM...Today through Friday...
Aside from a few high based showers across portions of southern
Nevada and western Arizona, the weather pattern largely remains
dry and quite hot by autumn standards. Widespread highs in the 90s
to low 100s can be expected daily through the end of the week,
with probabilities of exceeding 95 degrees in the Las Vegas Valley
some 70-90% per the latest NBM. Hotter locations, such as Death
Valley and the Colorado River Valley see probabilities of 80-100%
of daily highs in the 100s. In all, it`s still toasty! Aside from
the heat, little in the way of impactful weather exists through
the end of the week. A brief uptick in winds may occur Friday as
the upper ridge becomes reestablished and southwesterlies kick in.


.LONG TERM...This Weekend into Next Week...
The heat will slowly begin to abate over the weekend and into next
week, with probabilities of 90s and 100s gradually falling by mid
week, and especially late week. Ensemble agreement is quite strong
in the handling of the broad upper ridge and anomalously high
height`s warm temperatures, so confidence continues to remain high
that a warm to borderline hot weather pattern will continue into
the first half of next week. While much uncertainty remains for
the latter half of the week, longer term ensemble solutions do
point to the emergence of an upper trough across the western U.S.,
which could signify a return to at least more normal fall like
conditions. This would result in cooler overnight lows and a
return of breezy afternoon winds as the upper ridge begins to
break down. Regardless, the overall weather pattern will remain
dry and rather uneventful over the next week.

&&

.AVIATION...Generally, good aviation conditions will continue today
at the terminal, with wind directions following typical diurnal
trends and sustained wind speeds remaining 8 knots or less.  A few
isolated showers will be possible north of the Vegas Valley,
generally impacting the Mormon Mesa and Beatty approaches through
the late afternoon and causing localized areas of gusty winds and
turbulence.  By this evening, winds will turn to the west, and skies
should gradually clear overnight. Expect to see fewer clouds on
Wednesday with just some isolated cumulus over the higher terrain.
Winds will remain light, but favor a northeast to east direction in
the afternoon.

For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...No significant aviation impacts are expected at
regional terminals for the remainder of today, with winds generally
remaining less than 10 knots and only FEW to SCT clouds with bases
AOA 12kft AGL.  The exception will be across the higher elevations
of the southern Great Basin, with a few areas of convective showers
and virga expected, which may cause localized areas of erratic winds
and turbulence through this evening. Winds generally less than 10
knots overnight along with clearing skies. Light winds will remain
in place through Wednesday with generally clear skies across the
area with just a few clouds around 12kft over the higher terrain.

&&


.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Austin
AVIATION...Gorelow

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